BACKTESTMARKET
What is Continuous Futures Data and Back-Adjustment
General·

What is Continuous Futures Data and Back-Adjustment

Futures contracts expire — so how do you build a continuous historical price series? We explain the two approaches: raw concatenation and back-adjustment, and when each makes sense for backtesting.

By BacktestMarket Team
futuresbacktestingdata qualityback-adjustment

BacktestMarket offers futures data in two variations: not back-adjusted and back-adjusted (labelled bk). Understanding the difference is essential before running any backtest on futures instruments.

Why Continuous Data Is Needed

Each futures contract has a fixed expiry date. A crude oil contract expiring in July 2024 is a different instrument from one expiring in August 2024 — they trade at different prices and their series end at different times. To backtest a strategy over years or decades you need a single, uninterrupted price series. That means stitching together successive contracts into one continuous dataset.

Two decisions determine how that stitching works:

  1. When to roll — at expiry, or when the next contract overtakes the current one in traded volume
  2. How to handle the price gap at the roll — leave it raw, or adjust the history

We use the volume-based roll: when the next contract's volume exceeds the expiring contract's volume, a rollover occurs. This more closely reflects when liquidity actually migrates.

Not Back-Adjusted: Raw Concatenation

The simplest approach. Contracts are joined at the roll date without any price correction. The result is a series where price gaps appear at every rollover — because the expiring and the incoming contract never trade at exactly the same price.

When to use it

  • Strategies that trade the actual contract (not a synthetic continuous instrument)
  • Arbitrage and calendar spread research where the absolute price level matters
  • Situations where you need real fill prices to match broker data

Limitation

Gaps can be large (especially in energy or agricultural futures). A strategy that uses absolute price levels or calculates returns naively across roll dates will be distorted.

Back-Adjusted: Gap-Free History

Back-adjustment eliminates rollover gaps by rescaling the historical series every time a roll occurs. The process:

  1. At each roll, calculate the ratio between the expiring contract's last price and the incoming contract's first price
  2. Multiply the entire preceding history by that ratio
  3. Append the new contract's prices going forward

The result is a smooth, gap-free series where percentage returns across the roll are preserved accurately.

When to use it

  • Any strategy that calculates percentage returns, moving averages, or volatility over long periods
  • Machine learning pipelines that require a stationary, continuous price feature
  • Most trend-following and mean-reversion backtests

Limitation

Prices in the early history are synthetic — they do not correspond to any price the instrument actually traded at. You cannot use back-adjusted data to determine historical margin requirements or exact fill levels.

Which One Does BacktestMarket Provide?

Both. Each futures instrument in our catalogue is available as:

LabelDescription
(no suffix)Raw concatenation — actual historical prices
bkBack-adjusted — smooth series, rescaled at each roll

If you are running a quantitative strategy and unsure which to use, start with the back-adjusted series. If your strategy depends on absolute price levels or you are comparing against actual broker data, use the raw version.

Summary

Continuous futures data requires a choice: accept price gaps at rolls (raw) or eliminate them through rescaling (back-adjusted). Neither is universally correct — the right choice depends on what your strategy measures. Having both versions lets you test assumptions and validate that your results are not an artefact of the roll treatment.

Newsletter

Stay updated

New datasets, expert advisors, discounts, and trading insights — straight to your inbox.

Cart

Your cart is empty

Add some products to get started.